At the time of its completion, the Luka Dončić deal was regarded as the greatest NBA theft ever. The Los Angeles Lakers acquired a then-25-year-old MVP candidate one year after not only making it to the NBA Finals but also the only season in league history where a player ever averaged 33 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. All it took was an injury-prone superstar, a third-year guard with less than 3,000 minutes on his career resume, and a single first-round pick from the second-winning team in NBA history.
Few Mavericks supporters ever thought about how the Lakers were able to close the transaction at such a low cost because they were so incensed with Nico Harrison’s foolish choice. The truth is that it carried a fair bit of danger, at least on paper.
Since Dončić was only a season and a half away from free agency at the time, his team—whoever it was—would be just half a season away from having to make a gut check. Dončić had three realistic options when the time came this summer, regardless of whether he was a Maverick, a Laker, or something else. For his incumbent team, two of them were detrimental.
As a 2026 free agent, he had the opportunity to express his want to leave. That would have probably included a trade request, which is typically associated with a certain franchise. Consequently, the potential return is decreased. This is a tactic that the Lakers are very accustomed to. They acquired Anthony Davis in this way. However, it would have taken something really disastrous to make Dončić resent Los Angeles so rapidly after just six months on the squad. Losing to Minnesota in the first round is ineligible.
The more ambiguous negative result would have been the more likely. It would have been easy for Dončić to inform the Lakers that he was still undecided. Even if he was willing to stay with the Lakers, he might have made the decision that he preferred to have the freedom to look into free agency.
This would have sparked a panic in Los Angeles in one manner or another. Perhaps in order to prevent Dončić from departing for nothing, they would have made a last-minute transaction. More likely, they would have put their all into winning the 2026 title, just as LeBron James probably would have wanted. That would have required the Lakers to give multi-year contracts, trade draft picks, and take other actions that would have probably come at a major long-term cost. That’s not how James usually thinks. He often attempts to coerce his teammates into making these kinds of movements.
A year ago, Dončić made it to the NBA Finals. It’s possible that a player of his caliber would have been eager enough to think this. He would have had good reason to be reluctant to resign, even if this hadn’t been his attitude. He had only been in Los Angeles for six months, after all. Although not disastrous, the Lakers’ first-round loss wasn’t particularly promising, and he didn’t decide to join them. Given the situation, it would not have been difficult to comprehend Dončić’s persistent trust concerns following the manner in which his Dallas term concluded. Building a relationship in six months is challenging.
The Lakers leveraged these theoretical fears into more favorable trade terms. That’s why they still have Austin Reaves and Dalton Knecht and their 2031 first-round pick. But these are fears that apply to normal teams, and that was the brilliance of these negotiations, because the Lakers hoodwinked the Mavericks into accepting that they were a normal team and not, well, the Lakers. The third plausible decision was the one he made. He signed a two-year extension with a player option for a potential third year in 2028-29. And, well, of course he did. When has a player of Dončić’s stature ever left the Lakers? Kobe Bryant, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson never did. Shaquille O’Neal and Anthony Davis were traded on the team’s terms. Dwight Howard left, but that took a torn Achilles from Bryant and perhaps the most chaotic season in franchise history, hardly replicable conditions. You’ll notice that despite James’ frustrations, he’s still wearing purple and gold. The 29 other teams are playing one game. The Lakers are playing another. Other teams worry about losing their stars. The Lakers plot to steal everyone else’s. That’s what’s coming next. That’s what has informed the way the Lakers have managed this offseason. They’re keeping their powder dry, because now that Dončić is locked in, they know they’re about to have everything they need to seek out his sidekick. Initially, there was likely some hope that a 2026 free agent could be that player. When the Lakers initially traded for Mark Williams, part of the appeal would have been his low cap hold as a 2026 free agent. Austin Reaves has one as well, and the thought was that the Lakers could keep Dončić, Reaves, Williams and still maintain max cap space. The obvious target at the time was Jaren Jackson Jr., an ideal defensive complement to the offensively inclined Dončić-Reaves backcourt. He wound up re-signing with Memphis, and with De’Aaron Fox seemingly set to remain in San Antonio as well, Trae Young is the last remaining younger 2026 star. He and Dončić just don’t fit together given their on-ball proclivities. Besides, the Lakers are currently aiming a bit bigger, literally and figuratively. For the time being, both Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo are set to become free agents in 2027. That can obviously change. Jokić was eligible to extend this offseason but declined to do so. The obvious explanation was that he can make more money by waiting a year. The subtext is that, should things go south in Denver, he’d have a close friend waiting for him in Los Angeles. Antetokounmpo is not eligible to extend in Milwaukee yet. He will be next offseason. The Bucks are obviously quite aware of the trade rumors that have surrounded him all summer. If he elects not to extend next summer, the Bucks would almost have to trade him rather than risk him walking into vacant Laker cap space. This is the subtext of the 2027 plan. The hope is that it wouldn’t have to wait until 2027 to come together. Just as the Lakers were supposed to fear a possible Dončić trade request if he had not been happy in Los Angeles, they are banking on someone, whether it’s Antetokounmpo, Jokić or someone we aren’t expecting, to become unhappy somewhere else. The cap space is their leverage, their way of saying “you can give us your star or we can take him.” In a perfect world, the move happens sooner. The Lakers have subtly been setting themselves up for that ever since they nixed the Williams trade. Right now, the Lakers have only one tradable first-round pick, in 2031. Next offseason, that figure triples to three. Their 2033 pick opens up via the seven-year rule. Their 2026 pick unlocks from a Stepien Rule perspective the moment it is used. They’d also have the ability to offer first-round swap rights in any season except 2027 (when they owe their top-four protected pick to the Jazz) and 2029 (when their pick goes to Dallas). With 2026 cap space, they could absorb a big-name player outright, without having to send money back in a trade. That’s valuable to cheap owners and rebuilding front offices. Is that package going to win a fair bidding war? No. Frankly, it wouldn’t even with Reaves involved. The Rockets and Spurs have the ammunition to blow anyone out of the water on that front. But hey, the Celtics had the ammunition to outbid the Lakers for Davis. How’d that one turn out? Practically the entirety of NBA history has taught us what to expect next. Someone is going to say “I want to play with Dončić for the Lakers.” And that someone is going to get his wish. This would be an unrealistic fantasy for a lot of teams, but as we’ve covered, it’s just how things tend to work for the Lakers. We don’t know who it will be yet, but the Lakers will be able to access another star-level talent at a below-market price because they’re the Lakers. They didn’t have to worry about Dončić forcing his way out, and they won’t have to worry about someone trying to join him. That’s the irony of the Dončić trade. It really was one of the biggest heists in NBA history, but not entirely for the reasons people thought. While the Lakers did get their next franchise player at a fraction of his fair price, there were at least somewhat plausible explanations for how the Lakers negotiated for that bargain. Where the value is really going to be felt, though, is in what comes next. The Dončić trade brought the Lakers back to life. Though they were competitive in recent years with James and Davis, they were circling the drain longer-term. They had an aging roster the front office had clearly lost faith in, and while it likely would have taken a few years, they were headed for a rebuild. The Dončić trade let them skip all of that. They paid a pittance for a centerpiece they had no other obvious way of accessing. As the Lakers learned in the interregnum between Bryant and James, getting the first star is the hard part. As they saw with Davis and so many other prior moves, getting the second comes naturally. Now that Dončić is locked up, the Lakers are almost certainly going to find him a running mate, and once again, it’s going to be a heist.
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